Last year was a tough year for the Cubs and I don't think their fans are too optimistic about the upcoming season either. But I think they should be. Not in the, "This is our year" type of way, but in the fact that they should be competitive in their division and it looks like they are beginning to successfully transition into the next iteration of their team.
Why can't the Cubs be competitive in the NL Central this year? Who is going to run away with the division? The Cardinals lost their ace, Adam Wainwright for the season and they only won 86 games with him last year. The Reds overachieved last year and you can't trust Dusty Baker to not run their good young pitching into the ground. The Brewers added Greinke and Marcum to a good offensive team that couldn't pitch last year, but Greinke is already on the DL to start the year. The Pirates are improved, but not even close to enough, and the Astros just suck. So nobody is running away with this thing.
The Cubs have a solid starting rotation with a strong top three of Dempster, Zambrano and Garza. The also have an improved bullpen with the addition of Kerry Wood to help Sean Marshall set up for Carlos Marmol. I also think the Cubs lineup will be improved this year. Aramis Ramirez had his worst year as a Cub last year, due to just a terrible first half, but he started to play like his usual self in the second half, and there is no reason to think he can't play that way this year. Starlin Castro, though shaky in the field, can hit, and adding a full year of his bat to the lineup is a plus. And even though Tyler Colvin isn't currently listed as a starter, I guarantee he finds his way into the lineup somehow.
So, I do think the Cubs could win this division if things fall right, but do I think the Cubs will win the division? No, but I think they will be in the middle of a tight division race all year. Vegas has their over/under for wins at 81.5 and I think that is almost right on.
2011 Cubs Prediction: 81-81 (4th place in NL Central)
No comments:
Post a Comment