So everybody has their brackets out and is trying to figure out who is going to make the Final Four and where the early upsets are going to be. Also every website is giving out tips and strategies on how to fill out your bracket. The problem is, they all suck, and say a bunch of stuff that doesn't make any sense. They give you advice based on historical trends, in a sport that turns over so fast that anything that happened three years ago doesn't matter anymore.
I'm going to give you real advice. Why should you take it? Well because I have won more of these pools than anybody I know. I have won 3 and cashed out numerous other times, while filling out only one bracket a year. None of that submitting seven brackets and then claiming to be a genius when one does well. So here goes...
Fill out the bracket backwards - What I mean here is, figure out who your Final Four are first. That is where all the points are in your pool, so spend the most time trying to figure this out. Which leads me to...
Don't pick too many early upsets - Sure it's fun to say that you picked an early upset right. But if you pick 8 early upsets, your probably going to get half wrong, and that hurts you more than it helps you. Sure you get some points for the ones you got right, but you are losing way more potential points by missing on those high seeds advancing.
Don't worry about past trends - This means don't just pick a 12 seed because a 12 seed always wins. Pick the team you think will win. Five years ago every player on every team was different, so what happened then has absolutely no bearing on what will happen this year. I remember when Florida repeated, people said not to pick them because it was too hard to repeat and nobody had done it in 15 years. Well they were the best team, so they won, and won me my pool.
Don't get too fancy - When you are done filling out your bracket if you look down and see a 3,5,7, and 2 as your Final Four, you fucked up. It's not gonna happen. Start over and remember those teams got seeded well because they are good.
Don't worry about what the experts say - I'm pretty sure you can find an "expert" that has picked every different team. You are only going to confuse yourself if you read all of their picks. Plus, they basically get paid to entertain you, meaning they are going to get a lot more viewers or hits if they are picking upsets instead of picking the 1 seed to advance.
Basically what I'm saying here is, play it safe. You can't win your pool on the first weekend, but you can definitely lose it. Nobody remembers who picked the first round upset last year, but the winner's name gets sent out in the bracket email next year.
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